| Abstract |
Around the world, microfinance ties borrowers together using group repayment meetings, shared oaths and often, joint liability. Microfinance institutions (MFIs) have invested heavily in building social capital and generally boast stellar repayment rates. However, recent repayment crises have fueled speculation that peer effects might also reinforce default behavior. I estimate the causal effect of peer repayment on individuals' repayment decisions in the absence of joint liability following a district-level default in which 100% of borrowers temporarily defaulted on their loans and after which borrowers gradually decided whether to repay. Because the defaults occurred simultaneously, the timing of the shock induced variation in repayment incentives both at the individual and peer group levels. Individuals (or peer groups) near the end of their 50-week loan cycles were closest to receiving new loans and had the strongest incentives to repay; those who had recently received disbursements had the weakest. Using the variation in the peer group's incentives to instrument for peer repayment, I find that if a borrower's peers shift from full default to full repayment, she is 10-15pp more likely to repay. Last, I present a dynamic discrete choice model of the repayment decision to estimate the net benefit of the peer mechanism to the MFI. Repayers' positive influence on others (not non-repayers' negative influence) mainly drives the effect. Thus, peer effects actually improve repayment rates relative to a counterfactual without peer effects. |