Epidemiological expectations
| Authors | Carroll, Wang |
| Year | 2022 |
| Type | Working Paper | Literature Review Paper |
| Abstract | 'Epidemiological' models of belief formation put social interactions at their core; such models are widely used by scholars who are not economists to study the dynamics of beliefs in populations. We survey the literature in which economists attempting to model the consequences of beliefs about the future -'expectations'- have employed a full-fledged epidemiological approach to explore an economic question. We draw connections to related work on 'contagion,' narrative economics, news/rumor spreading, and the spread of internet memes. A main theme of the paper is that a number of independent developments have recently converged to make epidemiological expectations ('EE') modeling more feasible and appealing than in the past. |
| Keywords | Economic expectations, epidemiological expectations, social interactions, social dynamics, information diffusion, economic narratives |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w30605?utm_campaign=ntwh&utm_medium=email&utm_source=ntwg4 |
| Tags | Asset Pricing, Trading Volume and Market Efficiency | Consumer Decisions | Financing- and Investment Decisions (Individual) | Investment Decisions (Institutional) | Manager / Firm Behavior | Media and Textual Analysis | Propagation of Noise / Undesirable Outcomes | Social Network Structure | Social Transmission Biases | Theory |
The ex ante likelihood of bubbles
| Authors | Chinco |
| Journal | Management Science |
| Year | 2022 |
| Type | Published Paper |
| Abstract | The limits of arbitrage explain how a speculative bubble is sustained; they do not explain how likely one is to occur. To do that, you need a theory about the thing that sporadically causes arbitrageur constraints to bind. I propose a first such theory, which is based on social interactions between speculators. The theory says that bubbles should be more likely in assets where increases in past returns make excited-speculators relatively more persuasive to their peers. I empirically verify this ex ante prediction about bubble likelihoods and show that it is robust to some ex post disagreement about bubble definitions. |
| Keywords | Limits to arbitrage, speculative bubbles, social interactions |
| URL | https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4351 |
| Tags | Archival Empirical | Asset Pricing, Trading Volume and Market Efficiency | Financing- and Investment Decisions (Individual) | Investment Decisions (Institutional) | Propagation of Noise / Undesirable Outcomes | Theory |
Trust in crowdfunding: Experimental evidence from a fundraising campaign
| Authors | Diep-Nguyen, Yang |
| Year | 2022 |
| Type | Working Paper |
| Abstract | Despite the importance of trust in determining economic outcomes, little is known about what facilitates or hinders interpersonal trust. Using a randomized field experiment of a fundraising campaign, we examine the role of trust and the determinants of perceived trustworthiness in the context of crowdfunding. The key feature of the experiment involves randomized rotations of the campaign design, which differ in the profile photo, details of campaign description, and the update status. The perceived trustworthiness of these rotations is then independently judged by survey participants. We find that while posting updates significantly increases perceived trustworthiness of the campaign and the funds raised, having a more detailed description has little effect. Our follow-up survey reveals that the differential effects are mostly driven by information salience. Interestingly, displaying a white or male profile photo improves the trustworthiness score and generates a higher contribution level, which can be explained by white participants(and donors) and male participants (and donors) preferences. Finally, we find that effects of campaign updates and the profile photo disappear when donors are directly connected to the fundraising team, highlighting the authentication and trust-transmission role of social networks. |
| Keywords | Trust, trustworthiness, crowdfunding, donations |
| URL | https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3972418&dgcid=ejournal_htmlemail_behavioral:experimental:economics:ejournal_abstractlink |
| Tags | Experimental / Survey-Based Empirical | Financing- and Investment Decisions (Individual) | Social Network Structure | Theory |
A theory of financial media
| Authors | Goldman, Martel, Schneemeier |
| Journal | Journal of Financial Economics |
| Year | 2022 |
| Type | Published Paper |
| Abstract | We present a model of media coverage of corporate announcements. Firms strategically use the media to communicate corporate announcements to a group of traders who observe announcements not directly but through media reports. Journalists strategically select which announcements to report to readers. Media coverage inadvertently incentivizes firms to manipulate the underlying announcements. In equilibrium, media coverage is tilted towards less manipulated negative news. The presence of financial journalists leads to more manipulation but makes stock prices more informative on average. We provide additional predictions regarding the media's impact on the quality of firm announcements and stock prices. |
| Keywords | Financial journalism, disclosure, manipulation, price quality |
| URL | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X21003081 |
| Tags | Archival Empirical | Manager / Firm Behavior | Theory |
The risk and return of impact investing funds
| Authors | Jeffers, Lyu, Posenau |
| Year | 2022 |
| Type | Working Paper |
| Abstract | We provide the first analysis of the risk exposure and risk-adjusted performance of impact investing funds, private market funds with dual financial and social goals. We introduce a dataset of impact fund cash flows and exploit distortions in VC performance measures to characterize risk profiles. Impact funds have a lower market β than comparable private market strategies. Accounting for β, impact funds underperform the public market, though not more so than comparable strategies. Adding a public sustainability factor to our pricing model helps explain impact returns, though the correlation of fund cash flows with this factor is not necessarily positive. |
| Keywords | impact investing, private equity, venture capital |
| URL | https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3949530 |
| Tags | Archival Empirical | Asset Pricing, Trading Volume and Market Efficiency | Theory |
The risk and return of impact investing funds
| Authors | Jeffers, Lyu, Posenau |
| Year | 2022 |
| Type | Working Paper |
| Abstract | We provide the first analysis of the risk exposure and risk-adjusted performance of impact investing funds, private market funds with dual financial and social goals. We introduce a dataset of impact fund cash flows and exploit distortions in VC performance measures to characterize risk profiles. Impact funds have a lower market beta than comparable private market strategies. Accounting for market risk exposure, impact funds underperform the public market, though not more so than comparable strategies. Adding a public sustainability factor to our pricing model helps explain impact returns, though the correlation of fund cash flows with this factor is not necessarily positive. |
| Keywords | Impact investing, private equity, venture capital |
| URL | https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3949530 |
| Tags | Archival Empirical | Asset Pricing, Trading Volume and Market Efficiency | Theory |
A framework for analyzing influencer marketing in social networks: Selection and scheduling of influencers
| Authors | Mallipeddi, Kumar, Sriskandarajah, Zhu |
| Journal | Management Science |
| Year | 2022 |
| Type | Published Paper |
| Abstract | Explosive growth in the number of users on various social media platforms has transformed the way firms strategize their marketing activities. To take advantage of the vast size of social networks, firms have now turned their attention to influencer marketing wherein they employ independent influencers to promote their products on social media platforms. Despite the recent growth in influencer marketing, the problem of network seeding (i.e., identification of influencers to optimally post a firm's message or advertisement) neither has been rigorously studied in the academic literature nor has been carefully addressed in practice. We develop a data-driven optimization framework to help a firm successfully conduct (i) short-horizon and (ii) long-horizon influencer marketing campaigns, for which two models are developed, respectively, to maximize the firm's benefit. The models are based on the interactions with marketers, observation of firms' message placements on social media, and model parameters estimated via empirical analysis performed on data from Twitter. Our empirical analysis discovers the effects of collective influence of multiple influencers and finds two important parameters to be included in the models, namely, multiple exposure effect and forgetting effect. For the short-horizon campaign, we develop an optimization model to select influencers and present structural properties for the model. Using these properties, we develop a mathematical programming based polynomial time procedure to provide near-optimal solutions. For the long-horizon problem, we develop an efficient solution procedure to simultaneously select influencers and schedule their message postings over a planning horizon. We demonstrate the superiority of our solution strategies for both short- and long-horizon problems against multiple benchmark methods used in practice. Finally, we present several managerially relevant insights for firms in the influencer marketing context. |
| URL | https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/epdf/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3899 |
| Tags | Archival Empirical | Manager / Firm Behavior | Theory |
Game on: Social networks and markets
| Authors | Pedersen |
| Journal | Journal of Financial Economics |
| Year | 2022 |
| Type | Published Paper |
| Abstract | I present closed-form solutions for prices, portfolios, and beliefs in a model where four types of investors trade assets over time: naive investors who learn via a social network, "fanatics" possibly spreading fake news, and rational short- and long-term investors. I show that fanatic and rational views dominate over time, and their relative importance depends on their following by influencers. Securities markets exhibit social network spillovers, large effects of influencers and thought leaders, bubbles, bursts of high volume, price momentum, fundamental momentum, and reversal. The model sheds new light on the GameStop event, historical bubbles, and asset markets more generally. |
| Keywords | Networks influencers, social media, bubbles, asset prices, belief formation, momentum, reversal |
| URL | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X22000964 |
| Tags | Asset Pricing, Trading Volume and Market Efficiency | Financing- and Investment Decisions (Individual) | Investment Decisions (Institutional) | Theory |
Social Networks, trading, and liquidity
| Authors | Peng, Wang, Zhou |
| Year | 2022 |
| Type | Working Paper | Literature Review Paper |
| Abstract | The recent meme stock saga has drawn attention to the growing role of social networks in capital markets. In this paper, the authors summarize the latest research that uses large scale, representative, real-world social network data to study social networks' influences on trading, liquidity, and valuations of stocks. Institutional investors invest more heavily in stocks if there are strong social ties between the geographic locations of the institution's headquarters and the firm's headquarters. Further, a firm's social ties to large institutional investors reduce its cost of capital, increase its valuation, and strengthen its liquidity. Social networks help to timely disseminate important news releases into prices, but also trigger belief divergence and generate persistent excess trading. Moreover, social interactions can amplify investors' behavioral biases and contribute to retail investors' attraction to lottery-type stocks. The authors provide additional examples to further illustrate why the roles of social networks are of particular importance to market participants. |
| Keywords | Social networks, market liquidity |
| URL | https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4099114 |
| Tags | Asset Pricing, Trading Volume and Market Efficiency | Financing- and Investment Decisions (Individual) | Investment Decisions (Institutional) | Manager / Firm Behavior | Propagation of Noise / Undesirable Outcomes | Social Network Structure | Theory |
Social Networks, trading, and liquidity
| Authors | Peng, Wang, Zhou |
| Year | 2022 |
| Type | Working Paper | Literature Review Paper |
| Abstract | The recent meme stock saga has drawn attention to the growing role of social networks in capital markets. In this paper, the authors summarize the latest research that uses large scale, representative, real-world social network data to study social networks' influences on trading, liquidity, and valuations of stocks. Institutional investors invest more heavily in stocks if there are strong social ties between the geographic locations of the institution's headquarters and the firm's headquarters. Further, a firm's social ties to large institutional investors reduce its cost of capital, increase its valuation, and strengthen its liquidity. Social networks help to timely disseminate important news releases into prices, but also trigger belief divergence and generate persistent excess trading. Moreover, social interactions can amplify investors' behavioral biases and contribute to retail investors' attraction to lottery-type stocks. The authors provide additional examples to further illustrate why the roles of social networks are of particular importance to market participants. |
| Keywords | social networks, market liquidity |
| URL | https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4099114 |
| Tags | Asset Pricing, Trading Volume and Market Efficiency | Financing- and Investment Decisions (Individual) | Investment Decisions (Institutional) | Manager / Firm Behavior | Propagation of Noise / Undesirable Outcomes | Social Network Structure | Theory |
Social contagion and asset prices: Reddit's self-organised bull runs
| Authors | Semenova, Winkler |
| Year | 2022 |
| Type | Working Paper |
| Abstract | This paper develops an empirical and theoretical case for how `hype' among retail investors can drive large asset price fluctuations. We use text data from discussions on WallStreetBets (WSB), an online investor forum with over eleven million followers as of February 2022, as a case study to demonstrate how retail investors influence each other, and how social behaviors impact financial markets. We document that WSB users adopt price predictions about assets (bullish or bearish) in part due to the sentiments expressed by their peers. Discussions about stocks are also self-perpetuating: narratives about specific assets spread at an increasing rate before peaking, and eventually diminishing in importance -- a pattern reminiscent of an epidemiological setting. To consolidate these findings, we develop a model for the impact of social dynamics among retail investors on asset prices. We find that the interplay between 'trend following' and 'consensus formation' determines the stability of price returns, with socially-driven investing potentially causing oscillations and cycles. Our framework helps identify components of asset demand stemming from social dynamics, which we predict using WSB data. Our predictions explain significant variation in stock market activity. These findings emphasize the role that social dynamics play in financial markets, amplified by online social media. |
| Keywords | Social media analysis, sentiment contagion, asset prices |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.01847 |
| Tags | Archival Empirical | Asset Pricing, Trading Volume and Market Efficiency | Financing- and Investment Decisions (Individual) | Media and Textual Analysis | Theory |
Influencers, inefficiency and fraud - The Bitcoin price discovery network under the microscope
| Authors | Trimborn, Chen, Chen |
| Year | 2022 |
| Type | Working Paper |
| Abstract | We present a TriSNAR modeling framework for understanding the dynamic interactions of multiple markets for Bitcoin trading, including market efficiency, and for identifying influential exchanges in the global trading network. We are particularly interested in identifying exchanges that are market leaders. Out of 339 weeks (6.5 years of data), we identify 104 weeks in which TriSNAR provides the best MSFE out of 6 contestants and significantly outperforms all other models. Among 194 Bitcoin exchanges, we find that exchange Kraken was the leading exchange prior to the market frenzy of 2017, in particular in 2016. In addition, price discovery shows that the Bitcoin exchange networks efficiency decreased from 2015 to 2017, and increased since 2018. We analyse the relation between blockchain fund flows and influential exchanges, and observe that wealthy holders of Bitcoin transact funds to exchanges when influential exchanges arise. We investigate the finite sample and asymptotic properties of TriSNAR. Compared to alternative methods, TriSNAR outperforms in terms of accuracy and ability to discover multi-market network structures. |
| Keywords | Influencer identification, blockchain network analysis, market efficiency, structure detection, bitcoin exchanges |
| URL | https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4071212 |
| Tags | Asset Pricing, Trading Volume and Market Efficiency | Social Network Structure | Theory |
Let me show you what I did versus what I have: Sharing experiential versus material purchases alters authenticity and liking of social media users
| Authors | Valsesia, Diehl |
| Journal | Journal of Consumer Research |
| Year | 2022 |
| Type | Published Paper |
| Abstract | Social media may encourage novel ways of signaling that involve different purchase types (experiential vs. material), signaling frequencies (multiple vs. single signals), and other features unique to social media (e.g., hashtags). This work examines how purchase signals are received on social media and how these signaling variations affect signal receivers' perceptions of the authenticity of social media posts as well as the overall impressions receivers form of the signal sender. Data collected across six experiments show multiple material purchase signals lead to more negative impressions compared to multiple experiential purchase signals. Signal receivers perceive multiple material purchase posts as less authentic, which dampens their impressions of the signal sender. In line with this mechanism, the impression premium of experiential purchase signals disappears when receivers use other cues (monetary mentions, other users' comments, and marketer associations via hashtags) to infer a signal's lack of authenticity. Additional data also document downstream consequences on engagement. This work contributes theoretically to research in both signaling and social media and improves the understanding of substantive situations in which consumers' objectives of curating a positive image and creating engagement with their posts, collide with marketers' objectives of encouraging user-generated content and word of mouth. |
| Keywords | Signaling, social media, impression management, word of mouth, engagement, influencer |
| URL | https://academic.oup.com/jcr/article-abstract/49/3/430/6444995?redirectedFrom=fulltext |
| Tags | Archival Empirical | Consumer Decisions | Experimental / Survey-Based Empirical | Theory |
Social finance as cultural evolution, transmission bias, and market dynamics
| Authors | Akcay, Hirshleifer |
| Journal | Proceedings of the National Academy Sciences of the United States of America |
| Year | 2021 |
| Type | Published Paper |
| Abstract | The thoughts and behaviors of financial market participants depend upon adopted cultural traits, including information signals, beliefs, strategies, and folk economic models. Financial traits compete to survive in the human population and are modified in the process of being transmitted from one agent to another. These cultural evolutionary processes shape market outcomes, which in turn feed back into the success of competing traits. This evolutionary system is studied in an emerging paradigm, social finance. In this paradigm, social transmission biases determine the evolution of financial traits in the investor population. It considers an enriched set of cultural traits, both selection on traits and mutation pressure, and market equilibrium at different frequencies. Other key ingredients of the paradigm include psychological bias, social network structure, information asymmetries, and institutional environment. |
| Keywords | Evolutionary finance, cultural evolution, social interaction, behavioral economics, social finance |
| URL | https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015568118 |
| Tags | Asset Pricing, Trading Volume and Market Efficiency | Evolutionary Finance | Social Network Structure | Social Transmission Biases | Theory |
Social finance as cultural evolution, transmission bias, and market dynamics
| Authors | Akcay, Hirshleifer |
| Journal | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
| Year | 2021 |
| Type | Published Paper | Literature Review Paper |
| Abstract | The thoughts and behaviors of financial market participants depend upon adopted cultural traits, including information signals, beliefs, strategies, and folk economic models. Financial traits compete to survive in the human population and are modified in the process of being transmitted from one agent to another. These cultural evolutionary processes shape market outcomes, which in turn feed back into the success of competing traits. This evolutionary system is studied in an emerging paradigm, social finance. In this paradigm, social transmission biases determine the evolution of financial traits in the investor population. It considers an enriched set of cultural traits, both selection on traits and mutation pressure, and market equilibrium at different frequencies. Other key ingredients of the paradigm include psychological bias, social network structure, information asymmetries, and institutional environment. |
| Keywords | Evolutionary finance, cultural evolution, social interaction, behavioral economics, social finance |
| URL | https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2015568118 |
| Tags | Asset Pricing, Trading Volume and Market Efficiency | Consumer Decisions | Evolutionary Finance | Financing- and Investment Decisions (Individual) | Propagation of Noise / Undesirable Outcomes | Social Network Structure | Social Transmission Biases | Theory |
Punished for doing good: Heuristic-based judgement and the contingent returns to company philanthropy under high uncertainty
| Authors | Ballesteros, Wry, Useem |
| Year | 2021 |
| Type | Working Paper |
| Abstract | Companies donating in the aftermath of large-scale disasters often suffer public backlash and managers systematically fail to understand what corresponds to a donation that stakeholders perceive as contextually appropriate. We attribute this to the level of uncertainty that obscures the relative social value of a donation because accurate information about impacts is not available for months. We argue that stakeholders rely on a company's pre-disaster reputation as a heuristic to make judgments of its philanthropy. Thus, regardless of the amount of aid given, well-regarded firms obtain rents from responding first to a disaster, and this spills over to companies in the same industry that match their donations; the opposite applies to firms with an unfavorable reputation, and to those that imitate their gifts. Analyses of donations by the largest 2,000 companies worldwide to every major epidemic, natural disaster, and terrorist attack from 2007 to 2019 support this argument and show that this heuristic effect does not transfer to firms donating different amounts. The estimates survive a battery of time-varying and joint fixed effects and tests of confounders. They confirm that reputation is a stronger rent determinant than donation amount. We discuss ways to improve managerial philanthropic decisions in similar settings. |
| Keywords | Company philanthropy, reputation, disasters, heuristics, corporate social responsibility |
| URL | https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3919161&dgcid=ejournal_htmlemail_capital:markets:market:efficiency:ejournal_abstractlink |
| Tags | Archival Empirical | Manager / Firm Behavior | Media and Textual Analysis | Theory |
Do teams alleviate or exacerbate behavioral biases? Evidence from extrapolation bias in mutual funds
| Authors | Barahona, Cassella, Jansen |
| Year | 2021 |
| Type | Working Paper |
| Abstract | Whether teams attenuate or exacerbate the behavioral biases which are pervasive at the individual level is an open question. To address this question, we use the mutual fund industry as a laboratory. Our focus is on how return extrapolation is transmitted from individual fund managers to the team-managed funds they join. We show that teams heavily attenuate the influence of extrapolation bias on funds' trading behavior. Additional analysis reveals that this attenuation is not due to differences in investment experience, compensation contracts, workload, and investment styles between solo-managed and team-managed funds. Rather, our evidence suggests that the elicitation of team members' inner cognitive reflection can be responsible for teams' reduction in behavioral biases. Our results highlight the attenuation of the extrapolation bias as a potential benefit of team-based asset management. |
| Keywords | Behavioral biases, extrapolation, heuristics, mutual funds, teams |
| URL | https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3783421 |
| Tags | Archival Empirical | Asset Pricing, Trading Volume and Market Efficiency | Investment Decisions (Institutional) | Manager / Firm Behavior | Theory |
Information cascades and social learning
| Authors | Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer, Tamuz, Welch |
| Year | 2021 |
| Type | Working Paper | Literature Review Paper |
| Abstract | We review the theory of information cascades and social learning. Our goal is to describe in a relatively integrated and accessible way the more important themes, insights and applications of the literature as it has developed over the last thirty years. We also highlight open questions and promising directions for further theoretical and empirical exploration. |
| Keywords | Information cascades, social learning, herding, fads, fashion, conformity, culture |
| URL | https://ssrn.com/abstract=3851678 |
| Tags | Theory |
Does firm investment respond to peers' investment?
| Authors | Bustamante, Fresard |
| Journal | Management Science |
| Year | 2021 |
| Type | Published Paper |
| Abstract | We study whether, how, and why the investment of a firm depends on the investment of other firms in the same product market. Using an instrumental variable based on the presence of local knowledge externalities, we find a sizeable complementarity of investment among product market peers, holding across a large majority of sectors. Peer effects are stronger in concentrated markets, featuring more heterogeneous firms, and for smaller firms with less precise information. Our findings are consistent with a model in which managers are imperfectly informed about fundamentals and use peers' investments as a source of information. Product market peer effects in investment could amplify shocks in production networks. |
| Keywords | Investment, peer effect, competition, agglomeration economies |
| URL | https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3695 |
| Tags | Archival Empirical | Investment Decisions (Institutional) | Manager / Firm Behavior | Social Transmission Biases | Theory |
A theory of financial media
| Authors | Goldman, Martel, Schneemeier |
| Journal | Journal of Financial Economics |
| Year | 2021 |
| Type | Published Paper |
| Abstract | We present a model of media coverage of corporate announcements. Firms strategically use the media to communicate corporate announcements to a group of traders who observe announcements not directly but through media reports. Journalists strategically select which announcements to report to readers. Media coverage inadvertently incentivizes firms to manipulate the underlying announcements. In equilibrium, media coverage is tilted towards less manipulated negative news. The presence of financial journalists leads to more manipulation but makes stock prices more informative on average. We provide additional predictions regarding the media's impact on the quality of firm announcements and stock prices. |
| Keywords | financial journalism, disclosure, manipulation, price quality |
| URL | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.06.038 |
| Tags | Asset Pricing, Trading Volume and Market Efficiency | Manager / Firm Behavior | Media and Textual Analysis | Theory |